{"id":11763,"date":"2025-04-18T16:44:15","date_gmt":"2025-04-18T20:44:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/163noticias.com.br\/a-china-de-amanha-18-04-2025-demetrio-magnoli\/"},"modified":"2025-04-18T16:44:20","modified_gmt":"2025-04-18T20:44:20","slug":"a-china-de-amanha-18-04-2025-demetrio-magnoli","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/163noticias.com.br\/?p=11763","title":{"rendered":"A China de amanh\u00e3 &#8211; 18\/04\/2025 &#8211; Dem\u00e9trio Magnoli"},"content":{"rendered":"<div data-news-content-text=\"\" data-disable-copy=\"\" data-continue-reading=\"\" data-continue-reading-hide-others=\".js-continue-reading-hidden\" data-age-rating=\"\" itemprop=\"articleBody\">\n<p>A <a href=\"https:\/\/www1.folha.uol.com.br\/folha-topicos\/china\/\">China<\/a> representa 19% do PIB global, mas responde por 32% da produ\u00e7\u00e3o industrial mundial. O desequil\u00edbrio, cujas implica\u00e7\u00f5es contribu\u00edram para a ascens\u00e3o de Trump, n\u00e3o \u00e9 sustent\u00e1vel. No fim do percurso, o triunfo chin\u00eas na guerra tarif\u00e1ria depende da &#8220;normaliza\u00e7\u00e3o&#8221; de sua economia.<\/p>\n<p>O modelo exportador da China ancora-se no excesso de poupan\u00e7a dom\u00e9stica \u2013ou, dito de outro modo, num consumo interno reprimido. O segredo repousa no sistema pol\u00edtico totalit\u00e1rio, que mant\u00e9m baixos sal\u00e1rios, veta pol\u00edticas de bem-estar social e recusa-se a erguer um sistema decente de seguridade social.<\/p>\n<p>Desde o ingresso chin\u00eas na OMC, em 2001, \u00e0 base de uma intrincada rede de subs\u00eddios estatais, o modelo propiciou a expans\u00e3o da ind\u00fastria em saltos tecnol\u00f3gicos sucessivos, at\u00e9 a produ\u00e7\u00e3o de ve\u00edculos el\u00e9tricos, pain\u00e9is solares, baterias e softwares de IA. Os bens chineses inundaram o mercado mundial, eliminando competidores, devastando antigas regi\u00f5es industriais e, nesse passo, deslocando os sistemas pol\u00edticos nacionais.<\/p>\n<p>A rea\u00e7\u00e3o dos EUA come\u00e7ou com as tarifas seletivas de Trump 1, que buscavam estimular a relocaliza\u00e7\u00e3o industrial nos EUA ou em pa\u00edses parceiros. Prosseguiu com Biden, que deflagrou pol\u00edticas industriais eficazes de subs\u00eddio a setores estrat\u00e9gicos (semicondutores, ve\u00edculos el\u00e9tricos, aeroespacial) e fracassou na tentativa de sancionar empresas de ponta chinesas, algo ilustrado pela Huawei e pelo Deep Seek. Trump 2, contudo, jogou o tabuleiro pela janela, apostando numa aventura mercantilista sem rumo.<\/p>\n<p>Trump tinha a possibilidade de radicalizar as pol\u00edticas seguidas por Biden. Nessa linha, em coordena\u00e7\u00e3o com os aliados na Europa e <a href=\"https:\/\/www1.folha.uol.com.br\/folha-topicos\/asia\/\">\u00c1sia<\/a>, iniciaria uma escalada tarif\u00e1ria coletiva e gradual sobre a China, ao longo de um horizonte plurianual. A press\u00e3o sustentaria negocia\u00e7\u00f5es baseadas na exig\u00eancia de redu\u00e7\u00e3o dos subs\u00eddios industriais chineses e, imitando as pr\u00e1ticas do rival, obter o deslocamento de unidades produtivas da China para os EUA em joint ventures com empresas nacionais.<\/p>\n<p>O objetivo seria alcan\u00e7ar um reequil\u00edbrio da economia mundial, n\u00e3o edificar uma muralha protecionista em torno dos EUA. Trump, por\u00e9m, enxerga o com\u00e9rcio como um jogo de soma zero orientado pela busca obsessiva de super\u00e1vits. Partindo dessa supersti\u00e7\u00e3o ideol\u00f3gica, resolveu declarar uma guerra tarif\u00e1ria contra o mundo.<\/p>\n<p>Xi Jinping desenhou seu caminho. A China exibe-se como campe\u00e3 do livre interc\u00e2mbio e das regras comerciais multilaterais. Enquanto aplica retalia\u00e7\u00f5es aos EUA, promete abrir seu mercado interno e controlar os pre\u00e7os de suas exporta\u00e7\u00f5es, evitando uma inunda\u00e7\u00e3o global de produtos excedentes. De olho na Europa, os chineses exploram as oportunidades criadas pela investida de Trump contra a Uni\u00e3o Europeia.<\/p>\n<p>O sucesso da estrat\u00e9gia depende de uma revis\u00e3o estrutural do modelo econ\u00f4mico chin\u00eas, com a absor\u00e7\u00e3o do excedente de bens industriais pelo mercado interno. No cen\u00e1rio da guerra tarif\u00e1ria, dramatizado pelo envelhecimento demogr\u00e1fico, a China precisa transformar poupan\u00e7a dom\u00e9stica em consumo, o que demanda reformas sociais profundas.<\/p>\n<p>A China de amanh\u00e3 n\u00e3o ser\u00e1 a &#8220;f\u00e1brica do mundo&#8221;, mas uma economia industrial normal. A muta\u00e7\u00e3o inevit\u00e1vel foi acelerada por Trump. Ironicamente, o custo principal do reequil\u00edbrio recair\u00e1 sobre os EUA.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<div>\n<p class=\"c-context__content\">&#13;<br \/>\n    <strong>LINK PRESENTE:<\/strong> Gostou deste texto? Assinante pode liberar sete acessos gratuitos de qualquer link por dia. Basta clicar no F azul abaixo.&#13;\n  <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p><b>Fonte: Folha de S. Paulo <\/b><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A China representa 19% do PIB global, mas responde por 32% da produ\u00e7\u00e3o industrial mundial. O desequil\u00edbrio, cujas implica\u00e7\u00f5es contribu\u00edram para a ascens\u00e3o de Trump, n\u00e3o \u00e9 sustent\u00e1vel. No fim do percurso, o triunfo chin\u00eas na guerra tarif\u00e1ria depende da &#8220;normaliza\u00e7\u00e3o&#8221; de sua economia. O modelo exportador da China ancora-se no excesso de poupan\u00e7a dom\u00e9stica [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":11764,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[316],"tags":[6828,365,6817,542,6825,6826,6818,6819,6821,6824,6078,6820,6822,6829,6827,4308,3008,366,6823,6045,6830],"class_list":["post-11763","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-brasil","tag-amanha","tag-asia","tag-blogs-e-colunas","tag-china","tag-coluna","tag-coluna-da-folha","tag-colunista","tag-colunista-da-folha","tag-colunista-folha","tag-colunista-folha-de-s-paulo","tag-colunistas","tag-colunistas-da-folha","tag-colunistas-folha","tag-demetrio","tag-demetrio-magnoli","tag-donald-trump","tag-estados-unidos","tag-folha","tag-folha-colunistas","tag-guerra-comercial","tag-magnoli"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v21.1 (Yoast SEO v26.8) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>A China de amanh\u00e3 - 18\/04\/2025 - Dem\u00e9trio Magnoli - 163 NOTICIAS<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/163noticias.com.br\/?p=11763\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"pt_BR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"A China de amanh\u00e3 - 18\/04\/2025 - Dem\u00e9trio Magnoli\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"A China representa 19% do PIB global, mas responde por 32% da produ\u00e7\u00e3o industrial mundial. 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