{"id":16798,"date":"2026-11-03T23:09:13","date_gmt":"2026-11-04T03:09:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/163noticias.com.br\/?p=16798"},"modified":"2026-11-03T23:09:17","modified_gmt":"2026-11-04T03:09:17","slug":"nao-existe-atalho-para-resolver-os-juros-altos-03-11-2026-bruno-funchal","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/163noticias.com.br\/?p=16798","title":{"rendered":"N\u00e3o existe atalho para resolver os juros altos &#8211; 03\/11\/2026 &#8211; Bruno Funchal"},"content":{"rendered":"<div data-news-content-text=\"\" data-disable-copy=\"\" data-continue-reading=\"\" data-continue-reading-hide-others=\".js-continue-reading-hidden\" data-age-rating=\"\" itemprop=\"articleBody\">\n<p>Ganhou repercuss\u00e3o um <a href=\"https:\/\/www1.folha.uol.com.br\/mercado\/2026\/11\/proposta-de-lara-resende-para-limitar-selic-entra-no-radar-de-lula-e-assusta-mercado.shtml\" rel=\"\" target=\"\">texto do economista Andr\u00e9 Lara Resende<\/a> propondo reduzir a <a href=\"https:\/\/www1.folha.uol.com.br\/folha-topicos\/selic\/\">Selic<\/a> para 7,5% em doze meses e, depois, para uma faixa entre 3% e 5,5%. O ponto de partida \u00e9 a din\u00e2mica da d\u00edvida: o d\u00e9ficit prim\u00e1rio est\u00e1 abaixo de 1% do <a href=\"https:\/\/www1.folha.uol.com.br\/folha-topicos\/pib\/\">PIB<\/a> (Produto Interno Bruto), enquanto a conta de <a href=\"https:\/\/www1.folha.uol.com.br\/folha-topicos\/juros\/\">juros<\/a> supera 8,8%.<\/p>\n<p>A passagem do diagn\u00f3stico para a solu\u00e7\u00e3o, por\u00e9m, \u00e9 discut\u00edvel. Para sustentar que seria poss\u00edvel reduzir os juros sem desancorar a infla\u00e7\u00e3o, o autor recorre \u00e0 Teoria Fiscal do N\u00edvel de Pre\u00e7os, de John Cochrane. Vale olhar o que ela efetivamente diz.<\/p>\n<p>A ideia central \u00e9 simples: o valor real da d\u00edvida depende da capacidade futura de pagamento do governo. Quando n\u00e3o h\u00e1 confian\u00e7a de que haver\u00e1 super\u00e1vits suficientes para honrar a d\u00edvida de hoje, o ajuste ocorre pelo n\u00edvel de pre\u00e7os. Se o governo n\u00e3o tem recursos para pagar suas contas, agora ou de forma cr\u00edvel no futuro, haver\u00e1 infla\u00e7\u00e3o n\u00e3o importa o que o <a href=\"https:\/\/www1.folha.uol.com.br\/folha-topicos\/banco-central\/\">Banco Central<\/a> fa\u00e7a.<\/p>\n<p>O Banco Central consegue afetar a trajet\u00f3ria da infla\u00e7\u00e3o, mas n\u00e3o garantir sozinho a estabilidade de pre\u00e7os sem sustenta\u00e7\u00e3o fiscal. Pol\u00edtica monet\u00e1ria e fiscal n\u00e3o s\u00e3o mundos independentes e sua harmonia \u00e9 fundamental.<\/p>\n<p>Isso tamb\u00e9m explica por que governos conseguem financiar d\u00edvidas a juros menores. D\u00e9ficits presentes precisam vir acompanhados da expectativa cr\u00edvel de super\u00e1vits futuros. O investidor financia o governo hoje porque acredita que a conta ser\u00e1 paga amanh\u00e3.<\/p>\n<p>Assim, uma queda de juros incompat\u00edvel com a situa\u00e7\u00e3o fiscal pressionaria primeiro o c\u00e2mbio. Conter esse movimento exigiria vender reservas. As reservas acumuladas em duas d\u00e9cadas sofreriam e, acabariam financiando quem se antecipou. O segundo efeito viria da pr\u00f3pria curva de juros: o Banco Central define a taxa de um dia, n\u00e3o a de dez anos, que depende de expectativa de infla\u00e7\u00e3o e pr\u00eamio de risco. Menos juro anunciado, mais juro efetivamente pago.<\/p>\n<p>O Brasil oferece uma boa evid\u00eancia pr\u00e1tica de sucesso. <a href=\"https:\/\/aovivo.folha.uol.com.br\/2016\/12\/13\/5131-m.shtml\" rel=\"\" target=\"\">Em 2016, no auge da crise fiscal, foi aprovado o teto de gastos<\/a>. Naquele ano, o setor p\u00fablico ainda registrava d\u00e9ficit prim\u00e1rio de 2,48% do PIB. Ainda assim, estudo do Ipea estimou que a consolida\u00e7\u00e3o fiscal iniciada naquele per\u00edodo reduziu os juros reais de longo prazo entre 1,7 e 2,7 pontos percentuais. O resultado corrente ainda era ruim; o que havia mudado era a expectativa sobre a trajet\u00f3ria futura das despesas.<\/p>\n<p>\u00c9 justamente a\u00ed que est\u00e1 nosso maior desafio hoje. Parcela expressiva da despesa cresce automaticamente, seja pela indexa\u00e7\u00e3o ao sal\u00e1rio-m\u00ednimo, seja pelas vincula\u00e7\u00f5es constitucionais. Com mais de 90% da despesa prim\u00e1ria obrigat\u00f3ria, sobra pouco or\u00e7amento para escolhas e ajustes nas despesas.<\/p>\n<p>A queda sustent\u00e1vel dos juros passa, portanto, pela reorganiza\u00e7\u00e3o do or\u00e7amento: reduzir indexa\u00e7\u00f5es autom\u00e1ticas, rever vincula\u00e7\u00f5es que tornam o gasto pr\u00f3-c\u00edclico, criar gatilhos efetivos de corre\u00e7\u00e3o de rota e avaliar sistematicamente gastos tribut\u00e1rios.<\/p>\n<p>Essas reformas n\u00e3o s\u00e3o alternativas \u00e0 queda dos juros, s\u00e3o condi\u00e7\u00f5es para torn\u00e1-la sustent\u00e1vel. Quando a trajet\u00f3ria futura das contas se torna cr\u00edvel, o pr\u00eamio de risco pode cair antes mesmo de o super\u00e1vit aparecer. Foi o que come\u00e7amos a observar ap\u00f3s 2016.<\/p>\n<p>N\u00e3o resolveremos o fiscal ignorando a enorme conta de juros. Mas tampouco resolveremos os juros simplesmente determinando que sejam menores. Juros altos \u00e9 um sintoma do problema. N\u00e3o h\u00e1 atalho: a solu\u00e7\u00e3o duradoura passa pela reorganiza\u00e7\u00e3o das contas p\u00fablicas e pela reconstru\u00e7\u00e3o da confian\u00e7a no futuro.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<div>\n<p class=\"c-context__content\">&#13;<br \/>\n    <strong>LINK PRESENTE:<\/strong> Gostou deste texto? Assinante pode liberar sete acessos gratuitos de qualquer link por dia. Basta clicar no F azul abaixo.&#13;\n  <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p><b>Fonte: Folha de S. Paulo <\/b><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Ganhou repercuss\u00e3o um texto do economista Andr\u00e9 Lara Resende propondo reduzir a Selic para 7,5% em doze meses e, depois, para uma faixa entre 3% e 5,5%. O ponto de partida \u00e9 a din\u00e2mica da d\u00edvida: o d\u00e9ficit prim\u00e1rio est\u00e1 abaixo de 1% do PIB (Produto Interno Bruto), enquanto a conta de juros supera 8,8%. [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":16799,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[316],"tags":[12121,12120,835,11165,565,12119,366,12122,4164,464,224,6141,402,4766,6717,9939,473],"class_list":["post-16798","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-brasil","tag-altos","tag-atalho","tag-banco-central","tag-bruno","tag-economia","tag-existe","tag-folha","tag-funchal","tag-governo-lula","tag-juros","tag-lula","tag-nao","tag-para","tag-pib","tag-politica-monetaria","tag-resolver","tag-selic"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v21.1 (Yoast SEO v26.8) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>N\u00e3o existe atalho para resolver os juros altos - 03\/11\/2026 - Bruno Funchal - 163 NOTICIAS<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/163noticias.com.br\/?p=16798\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"pt_BR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"N\u00e3o existe atalho para resolver os juros altos - 03\/11\/2026 - Bruno Funchal\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Ganhou repercuss\u00e3o um texto do economista Andr\u00e9 Lara Resende propondo reduzir a Selic para 7,5% em doze meses e, depois, para uma faixa entre 3% e 5,5%. 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