{"id":17552,"date":"2026-11-08T21:25:25","date_gmt":"2026-11-09T01:25:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/163noticias.com.br\/?p=17552"},"modified":"2026-11-08T21:25:28","modified_gmt":"2026-11-09T01:25:28","slug":"temores-de-recessao-batem-a-porta-08-11-2026-opiniao","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/163noticias.com.br\/?p=17552","title":{"rendered":"Temores de recess\u00e3o batem \u00e0 porta &#8211; 08\/11\/2026 &#8211; Opini\u00e3o"},"content":{"rendered":"<div data-news-content-text=\"\" data-disable-copy=\"\" data-continue-reading=\"\" data-continue-reading-hide-others=\".js-continue-reading-hidden\" data-age-rating=\"\" itemprop=\"articleBody\">\n<p>O resultado esperado da imprevid\u00eancia no trato das contas p\u00fablicas e da consequente manuten\u00e7\u00e3o de <a href=\"https:\/\/www1.folha.uol.com.br\/folha-topicos\/juros\/\">juros<\/a> reais elevad\u00edssimos chegou na forma de uma perda clara de ritmo da <a href=\"https:\/\/www1.folha.uol.com.br\/folha-topicos\/economia\/\">economia<\/a> brasileira, com risco concreto de estagna\u00e7\u00e3o ou mesmo de uma recess\u00e3o em 2027.<\/p>\n<p>Revis\u00f5es baixistas para as proje\u00e7\u00f5es de desempenho v\u00e3o se tornando regra. Para o Ibre-FGV, por exemplo, se mantida a piora atual das condi\u00e7\u00f5es financeiras, com juros e <a href=\"https:\/\/www1.folha.uol.com.br\/folha-topicos\/cambio\/\">c\u00e2mbio<\/a> em alta, as atividades c\u00edclicas (com\u00e9rcio, <a href=\"https:\/\/www1.folha.uol.com.br\/folha-topicos\/industria\/\">ind\u00fastria<\/a> de transforma\u00e7\u00e3o e servi\u00e7os) <a href=\"https:\/\/www1.folha.uol.com.br\/mercado\/2026\/11\/risco-de-recessao-no-brasil-ganha-forca-para-2027.shtml\" rel=\"\" target=\"\">recuariam 0,5% no pr\u00f3ximo ano.<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Mesmo com contribui\u00e7\u00e3o positiva de setores sujeitos a fatores al\u00e9m da demanda dom\u00e9stica, como agropecu\u00e1ria e ind\u00fastria extrativa mineral, o Produto Interno Bruto tenderia \u00e0 estagna\u00e7\u00e3o.<\/p>\n<p>O Boletim Macro de outubro do instituto j\u00e1 previa expans\u00e3o de s\u00f3 1,7% neste 2026, com paralisia no terceiro trimestre e perda de f\u00f4lego no emprego formal. No setor privado, as proje\u00e7\u00f5es convergem para o mesmo diagn\u00f3stico.<\/p>\n<p>A taxa de desemprego ainda permanece baixa, mas \u00e9 um falso conforto. A gera\u00e7\u00e3o de vagas tem vigor menor, assim como a renda dispon\u00edvel das fam\u00edlias, que sustentou o consumo nos anos anteriores. Ap\u00f3s avan\u00e7os expressivos entre 2021 e 2025, o ritmo mensal ajustado pela <a href=\"https:\/\/www1.folha.uol.com.br\/folha-topicos\/inflacao\/\">infla\u00e7\u00e3o<\/a> aproximou-se de zero no per\u00edodo de janeiro a agosto \u00faltimo.<\/p>\n<p>Nas \u00faltimas semanas, as condi\u00e7\u00f5es financeiras pioraram com a perman\u00eancia da <a href=\"https:\/\/www1.folha.uol.com.br\/folha-topicos\/selic\/\">Selic<\/a> em 13,75% ao ano e o <a href=\"https:\/\/www1.folha.uol.com.br\/folha-topicos\/dolar\/\">d\u00f3lar<\/a> mais caro. Press\u00f5es inflacion\u00e1rias e de custos persistem, inclusive o risco de aumento dos pre\u00e7os de combust\u00edveis, hoje contidos por subs\u00eddios e desonera\u00e7\u00f5es federais de alto custo fiscal que n\u00e3o podem ser mantidos indefinidamente.<\/p>\n<p>Essa din\u00e2mica exp\u00f5e a inconsist\u00eancia do modelo de gest\u00e3o petista. Gastos p\u00fablicos crescentes ocupam a capacidade instalada sem avan\u00e7o concomitante de produ\u00e7\u00e3o e produtividade.<\/p>\n<p>O resultado \u00e9 que qualquer est\u00edmulo adicional se transforma em mais infla\u00e7\u00e3o, juros mais altos e piora dos indicadores de endividamento. A d\u00edvida federal deve se aproximar de 83,7% do <a href=\"https:\/\/www1.folha.uol.com.br\/folha-topicos\/pib\/\">PIB<\/a> neste ano, cerca de 12 pontos percentuais a mais do que em 2022.<\/p>\n<p>Do lado privado, a Serasa registra recorde de 84,2 milh\u00f5es de inadimplentes em setembro, ou 51,1% da popula\u00e7\u00e3o adulta<a href=\"https:\/\/www1.folha.uol.com.br\/opiniao\/2026\/09\/sem-conter-gasto-publico-nao-havera-desenrola-que-baste.shtml\" rel=\"\" target=\"\">. O endividamento de alto custo <\/a>e curto prazo estrangula o or\u00e7amento das fam\u00edlias mais pobres e for\u00e7a o corte de consumo, alimentando o ciclo descendente.<\/p>\n<p>Embora n\u00e3o se espere uma recess\u00e3o profunda como em 2015 e 2016, o pa\u00eds enfrenta s\u00e9rios riscos no ano que vem, se n\u00e3o for aberto espa\u00e7o para cortes substanciais nos juros. Sem artificialismo, o que o momento exige \u00e9 um ajuste fiscal de grande envergadura.<\/p>\n<p>Tal medida ainda continua a ser objeto de controv\u00e9rsia no governo e de sinais d\u00fabios do reeleito Luiz In\u00e1cio <a href=\"https:\/\/www1.folha.uol.com.br\/folha-topicos\/lula\/\">Lula<\/a> da Silva (<a href=\"https:\/\/www1.folha.uol.com.br\/folha-topicos\/pt\/\">PT<\/a>). Diante da realidade, por\u00e9m, o petista n\u00e3o escapar\u00e1 de lidar com as consequ\u00eancias do desequil\u00edbrio que ele pr\u00f3prio causou.<\/p>\n<p class=\"tagline\"><a href=\"https:\/\/redir.folha.com.br\/redir\/online\/emcimadahora\/rss091\/*https:\/\/www1.folha.uol.com.br\/opiniao\/2026\/11\/mailto:editoriais@grupofolha.com.br\">editoriais@grupofolha.com.br<\/a><\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p><b>Fonte: Folha de S. Paulo <\/b><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>O resultado esperado da imprevid\u00eancia no trato das contas p\u00fablicas e da consequente manuten\u00e7\u00e3o de juros reais elevad\u00edssimos chegou na forma de uma perda clara de ritmo da economia brasileira, com risco concreto de estagna\u00e7\u00e3o ou mesmo de uma recess\u00e3o em 2027. Revis\u00f5es baixistas para as proje\u00e7\u00f5es de desempenho v\u00e3o se tornando regra. Para o [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":17553,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[316],"tags":[9462,8387,502,565,8766,951,366,6166,10165,7618,3614,464,224,7072,8767,4766,12723,3208,3708,473,12722],"class_list":["post-17552","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-brasil","tag-batem","tag-cambio","tag-dolar","tag-economia","tag-editoriais","tag-eleicoes","tag-folha","tag-folha-de-s-paulo","tag-inadimplencia","tag-industria","tag-inflacao","tag-juros","tag-lula","tag-opiniao","tag-opiniao-da-folha","tag-pib","tag-porta","tag-pt","tag-recessao","tag-selic","tag-temores"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v21.1 (Yoast SEO v26.8) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Temores de recess\u00e3o batem \u00e0 porta - 08\/11\/2026 - Opini\u00e3o - 163 NOTICIAS<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/163noticias.com.br\/?p=17552\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"pt_BR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Temores de recess\u00e3o batem \u00e0 porta - 08\/11\/2026 - Opini\u00e3o\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"O resultado esperado da imprevid\u00eancia no trato das contas p\u00fablicas e da consequente manuten\u00e7\u00e3o de juros reais elevad\u00edssimos chegou na forma de uma perda clara de ritmo da economia brasileira, com risco concreto de estagna\u00e7\u00e3o ou mesmo de uma recess\u00e3o em 2027. 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